Fire Crux MageTier 1
at IanTCG Regional
decks
3
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-4-3
overall winrate
63.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.4%
avg ELO +3.8 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1242
· range 1221–1402
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1200
Q3 1409
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.5% | -12.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.5% | +13.8 |
| Fire Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
